China's 13th Five-Year Plan for Energy Raises Low-Carbon Targets Again. China's 13th Five-Year Plan for Energy is perhaps one of the most closely watched energy development blueprints in the world. It will have a profound impact on China's carbon footprint over the next five years, given that it is the world's second-largest economy and largest carbon emitter. On January 5, 2017, the National Energy Administration of China finally released this highly anticipated plan, which includes a series of 2020 targets covering everything from total energy consumption to wind power capacity. One noteworthy point is that through the 13th Five-Year Plan for Energy, China may have once again raised its low-carbon ambitions, highlighting the urgent need for this smog-ridden country to achieve energy transition. Last March (2016), China released the \"Outline of the 13th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development (2016-2020),\" which included a series of climate and energy targets, such as setting an energy consumption ceiling and increasing the proportion of non-fossil fuels in the domestic primary energy mix to 15%. If we consider this \"top-level plan\" as China's comprehensive development plan for the next five years (2016-2020), then the 13th Five-Year Plan for Energy is a \"sub-plan\" in the energy sector. This plan will include more sub-targets, thereby guiding policy-making, public spending, and project planning in the energy sector. The Chinese government has clearly outlined numerous climate and energy targets for 2020 in the \"Energy Development Strategy Action Plan (2014-2020)\" and the 13th Five-Year Plan. Comparing these targets with the actual baseline at the end of 2015, it is clear that most of the targets in the 13th Five-Year Plan for Energy are not entirely new. Many are actually consistent with previously announced policies, especially the \"Energy Development Strategy Action Plan (2014-2020).\" When the \"Strategic Plan\" was released, it imposed restrictions on coal consumption and carbon dioxide emissions that exceeded international expectations, demonstrating considerable ambition. In addition to further reducing the proportion of coal in the overall national energy mix, with the projected share of coal in primary energy consumption to decrease from 62% to 58% or even lower by 2020, China is also committed to further accelerating the development of renewable energy. By 2020, China's installed wind and solar power capacity will reach over 210 million kilowatts and 110 million kilowatts respectively, exceeding the targets announced at the end of 2014. Looking back at China's various energy and low-carbon targets since the 2009 Copenhagen Climate Conference, we find that: \u2013 China has proactively raised its low-carbon targets on several occasions; \u2013 China has achieved most of its 2015 low-carbon and energy targets ahead of others, making its 2020 targets increasingly ambitious; \u2013 Compared to other major economies globally, China's carbon intensity reduction target is the most aggressive. However, ambitious targets do not automatically translate into results. To achieve the energy targets set during the 13th Five-Year Plan period in less than five years, China still needs to overcome many obstacles. Overcapacity: China's power sector faces a serious overcapacity problem. The overall economic downturn and weakness in energy-intensive industries have led to slower electricity demand growth, resulting in widespread underutilization of existing generating units, with utilization hours falling to their lowest level since 1978. However, the Chinese government approved a large number of coal-fired power generation projects during the period of rapid economic development. Coupled with falling coal prices and government-fixed electricity prices leading to increased profits for coal-fired power plants, this inertia and reverse stimulus have resulted in the continued rapid expansion of coal-fired power plant construction in China. This situation prompted regulatory agencies to set a target of limiting coal-fired power capacity to 1.1 billion kilowatts in the 13th Five-Year Plan for Energy, and to reduce the scale of new coal-fired power capacity. Curtailment of wind and solar power: Overcapacity in coal-fired power has also led to curtailment of wind and solar power in the renewable energy sector, especially in the western regions. Transmission bottlenecks and electricity market allocation issues have prevented a large amount of renewable electricity from being successfully connected to the grid. In 2015 alone, 15% of total wind power generation was wasted, reaching a historical high. The 13th Five-Year Plan for Energy indicates that relevant decision-making bodies will prioritize curbing this trend. Furthermore, the government has already shifted the focus of new wind and solar power capacity installations over the next five years towards the central and eastern regions, reducing the pressure on future west-to-east transmission of renewable energy and potential bottlenecks. Source: chinadialogue (2017-01-05) (Compiled by PIDC)<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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