A recent study published in the environmental science journal *Resources, Conservation & Recycling* shows that China has an opportunity to control its total primary energy consumption to a more reasonable level and achieve its carbon emission reduction targets around 2023. Whether China, which accounts for a quarter of global carbon dioxide emissions, can achieve its carbon reduction targets as soon as possible is crucial. Yang Fuqiang, senior advisor at the Natural Resources Defense Council, believes that the closer China's carbon reduction targets are to 2020, the higher the likelihood of achieving the global carbon emission targets declared in 2020. 2020 is widely considered a critical year for global climate action; if carbon emissions cannot be reduced to the set targets by 2020, humanity will face catastrophic consequences such as accelerated sea-level rise and worsening extreme weather events. This study, a collaboration between Yuan Jiahai, professor at the School of Economics and Management of North China Electric Power University, and Liu Qilin, visiting researcher at the Center for Asian Studies at the University of Pittsburgh, focuses on China's energy consumption. Carbon dioxide accounts for 77% of global greenhouse gases, and more than 90% of carbon dioxide comes from energy consumption; therefore, reducing carbon emissions from energy consumption is a primary task in mitigating climate change. China's Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) submitted to the United Nations in 2015 aimed to reduce the country's carbon dioxide emissions by 60%\u201365% per unit of GDP by 2030 compared to 2005 levels. Yuan Jiahai told China Dialogue that during the two five-year plans (2006\u20132010 and 2011\u20132015), China's carbon intensity per unit of GDP decreased by 20% and 21.8%, respectively. Based on the Energy Production and Consumption Revolution Strategy (CERS 2016) released by China's National Development and Reform Commission in April 2017 and China's current performance, he predicts that by 2030 this figure could be 65% to 67% lower than the 2005 baseline, exceeding the official climate commitment target. However, under this scenario, the average annual growth rate of China's energy consumption carbon emissions will still be approximately 0.9% between 2020 and 2030, reaching 11.31 billion tons in 2030. This means that China's carbon emissions may meet the target by 2030, but it is highly unlikely to be achieved ahead of schedule. \"According to the development plan of the energy revolution strategy, China can successfully achieve the key indicator of carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP in both 2020 and 2030, but as a goal, the challenge is insufficient,\" said Yuan Jiahai. He added that this climate commitment has not met the expectations of the international community. It is worth noting that Yuan Jiahai also mentioned in his paper that, according to the energy revolution strategy, China's coal consumption will continue to grow slowly until 2030. However, between 2013 and 2016, China's actual coal consumption (based on standard coal equivalent) had already decreased by 10.9%. The uncertainty surrounding the coal consumption outlook will significantly impact China's actual emissions reduction performance. Source: Chinadialogue (2017-11-23) (Compiled by PIDC)<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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