The International Energy Agency (IEA) released the "World Energy Outlook 2020" report on the 13th. The 464-page outlook report pointed out that the turmoil caused by the Wuhan pneumonia (COVID-19) will cause high uncertainty in global energy use in the next 20 years. The Energy Outlook report provides four major scenarios: Renewable energy will grow significantly in all four scenarios. This year’s report provides a total of four possible pathways or scenarios, forecast to 2040. In all four scenarios, renewable energy will grow significantly. In the IEA's most likely scenario, solar production would be 43% higher by 2040 than expected in 2018, in part because solar energy is 20 to 50% cheaper than expected. The IEA pointed out that despite the accelerated growth of renewable energy and the structural decline of coal, it is too early to declare a peak in global oil use unless stronger climate action is taken. Likewise, natural gas demand may grow by another 30% by 2040 unless policies to combat global warming accelerate. This means that although global carbon dioxide emissions have peaked, they are far from the rapid post-peak decline needed to stabilize the climate. The IEA said that to achieve net-zero carbon emissions in 2050, all levels of the global economy will need to use "prehistoric efforts", not just the electricity industry. The main approach of this report is still the "Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS)", which is a scenario that assumes the government can fulfill its commitments. However, the IEA has its own assessment of whether the government is making solid progress towards its goals. The report also explains through the "Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS)" how the government's commitment needs to be strengthened to become more sustainable. This year's report simulates in detail for the first time "the situation of achieving net zero emissions in 2050" (NZE2050), that is, by 2030, carbon dioxide emissions will be 45% lower than in 2010, net zero will be achieved in 2050, and there will be a 50% chance of achieving net zero emissions. Limit temperature rise to 1.5°C, and will explain what needs to be done to achieve this scenario. Finally, there is the "Delayed Recovery Scenario (DRS)", which is what will happen when the Wuhan pneumonia epidemic continues, the global economy takes longer to recover, and GDP and energy demand growth decline sharply. Renewable energy accounts for the largest share of demand growth in all scenarios. On the contrary, as global climate policy becomes more aggressive, fossil fuel growth weakens or even declines. Net-zero carbon emissions will not be reached until 2070 under the Sustainable Development Scenario. Under SDS, by 2040, although oil and gas will still be the first and second major energy sources, all fossil fuel use will have reduced. Relative to 2019 levels, coal will fall by two-thirds, oil by one-third, and natural gas by 12%. Meanwhile, other renewable energy sources (mainly wind and solar) will soar to third largest, growing almost sevenfold (+662%) over the next 20 years. In SDS, we can see smaller, but still considerable, growth in hydropower (+55%), nuclear energy (+55%) and biomass energy (+24%). By 2040, low-carbon energy will account for 44% of the global energy mix, up from 19% in 2019. According to the IEA, coal will fall to 10%, the lowest level since the Industrial Revolution. Still, it will take until 2070 for the world to reach net-zero carbon dioxide emissions. Source: Environmental Information Center External Information
