On May 18 this year (2021), the International Energy Agency (IEA) published the first forecast path analysis report for the global energy system to reach net zero emissions, "Net Zero by 2050: Global Energy Sector Roadmap" (Net Zero by 2050 : A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector), hoping to help countries formulate energy-related policies. The report analyzes the actions and timetable required to achieve carbon reduction goals, such as banning the sale of fossil fuel boilers in 2025 and making 60% of new cars electric in 2030. In addition, the report also analyzes the development of low-carbon technologies and its impact on the economy and energy industry. , global natural resource extraction, energy security and other impacts in different aspects. The report mentions "only a pathway, rather than the pathway." Actually reaching net zero will involve many uncertain factors such as the degree of behavioral change and the progress of carbon capture technology development. The current policies and carbon reduction progress of various countries make it very difficult to achieve net-zero emission goals. Global carbon reduction policies and processes: How far are the current policies of various countries from net-zero emissions? In addition to discussing the path to net-zero emissions, the report also analyzes two non-net-zero scenarios, the "Stated Polices Scenario (STEPS)" and the "Anounced Pledges Case (APC)". The "existing policy scenario" only considers the carbon reduction targets that countries have completed legislation to estimate future carbon emissions. As of 2021, six countries have completed net-zero emissions legislation, including the United Kingdom, Sweden, France, Denmark, Hungary, and New Zealand. The "declared goal scenario" assumes that those that have declared but have not completed legislation will achieve the declared goals in the future, such as the United States, the European Union, Japan, South Korea, China, etc. What technologies are needed to achieve net-zero carbon reduction technologies? There are many ways to reduce carbon emissions, but the report specifically discusses the following seven key technologies: (1) Energy efficiency: Improving energy efficiency can reduce energy use and directly affect emissions. For example: improving the efficiency of industrial processes and recycling waste heat, improving the efficiency of household electronic products, and saving energy in buildings. (2) Behavior change: Behavior change can reduce energy use or waste. For example: changing to low-carbon transportation methods, increasing recycling and reuse of goods, and reducing energy consumption during manufacturing. (3) Renewable energy: Replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy can reduce carbon emissions caused by energy use. (4) Electrification: It can reduce the direct use of fossil fuels, and when combined with low-carbon electricity, it can reduce carbon emissions. For example: electric vehicles replace fuel vehicles, and electric heating replaces gas water heaters. (5) Hydrogen energy: It can be used in applications that are not suitable for electrification (such as long-distance transportation, some industrial processes). Hydrogen energy can be stored in large quantities and for long periods of time, and can be used for seasonal energy storage. (6) Carbon capture, utilization and storage: It can reduce carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere, or capture carbon dioxide in the atmosphere to offset emissions from sectors that are difficult to decarbonize. Such as: aviation, heavy industry. (7) Biomass energy: It can be obtained from absorbing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere (such as artificial forests, food waste), and will become one of the important sources of energy in the future. If combined with carbon capture, utilization and storage, it can provide negative emissions. It can be seen from the energy ratio of the net-zero path (the figure below) that solar energy, wind power, biomass energy, and nuclear energy will gradually replace coal, oil, and natural gas. What can Taiwan learn from the report? (1) Achieving net-zero emissions is feasible but extremely challenging and requires long-term and comprehensive planning. Taiwan's net-zero emissions target is still under review, and relevant results are expected before the Glasgow Climate Summit at the end of the year. (2) The path and timetable proposed in the report can serve as a reference for policy formulation. Taiwan’s carbon reduction progress clearly lags behind other advanced economies. (3) The promotion of carbon reduction policies requires public support. There is still a lot of room for improvement in Taiwanese people’s level of concern and understanding of climate issues. Data source: Environmental Protection Information Center (https://e-info.org.tw/node/231489)
