Data from Wood Mackenzie shows that between 2019 and 2023, the number of global photovoltaic installations will grow by an average of 28% annually, of which there will be a sharp increase of 56% between 2022 and 2023. However, no growth is expected from 2024 to 2028. Although the total global solar installation capacity will continue to grow rapidly in the next 10 years, compared with the growth rate in recent years, the growth rate of installation volume will begin to slow down in 2024. Wood Mackenzie estimates that global new solar installation capacity will be 270GW this year, while the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that new solar installation capacity will be 349GW in 2023.
However, the growth of the global solar market follows a typical S-curve. In recent years, the steepest part of the curve has seen rapid growth, starting in 2024, when the industry will pass a turning point characterized by a slowing growth pattern. While the global solar market is still many times larger than it was just a few years ago, it is only natural to follow this growth path as the industry matures. Currently, not all regions are at the same point on the S-curve. Africa and the Middle East, for example, have a long way to go before they reach a turning point in their growth. In addition, the two major markets of Asia-Pacific and Europe, dominated by China, are driving this growth model globally. It is worth noting that any changes in China will have a significant impact on world markets, as China leads the way in new installation capacity, with approximately 180GW of new installation capacity set to be added this year.
The main reason that may be affecting the slowdown in growth is the global commitment to the energy transition. A so-called "historic" declaration was reached at COP28, setting the goal of transitioning away from fossil fuels for the first time. This goal brings changes to the global energy system. Oil, natural gas and coal consumption continues to grow, albeit at a slower pace, and will peak in 2023. In addition, COP28 agreed to triple the amount of renewable energy by 2030.
Global coal demand will grow by 1.4% in 2023, exceeding 8.5 billion tons for the first time. While consumption in the EU and the United States is expected to grow by around 20%, consumption in India and China will grow by 8% and 5% respectively. However, by 2026, the growth rate of global coal consumption is expected to decrease by 2.3% compared with 2023 levels.
Source: PV magazine
