Did you know? Climate change is a salary and pension thief!
The latest research in the internationally authoritative journal Nature estimates that climate change is expected to cause annual economic losses of US$38 trillion in 2049. In 2100, losses may double again.
How big a loss is $38 trillion? It is roughly more than twice the annual GDP of the entire European Union, 1.5 times the annual GDP of the United States, or nearly 30 times the GDP of Taiwan in 2023.
This paper studies the economic impact of climate on more than 1,600 regions around the world over the past 40 years, such as how changes in average annual temperature affect changes in economic growth rates, and then uses computer simulations to predict future trends. The results found that compared with the "no warming" scenario, climate change will cause global per capita income to decrease by 18.8% in 26 years.
Although almost all countries face economic losses, the biggest losses are those that are the poorest, have the lowest historical cumulative carbon emissions, and are least responsible for carbon emissions. The study estimates that the income losses of the world's poorest countries are 61% higher than those of the richest countries; the income losses of countries with the lowest historical carbon emissions are 40% higher than those of countries with the highest historical carbon emissions.
"These phenomena once again highlight the widespread injustice of climate shocks," the paper said.
From a regional perspective, wealthy North America and Europe will suffer the least damage, with per capita income expected to decline by 11%; Southeast Asia and East Asia, where Taiwan is located, are expected to decrease by 19%, slightly higher than the global average; the worst-affected areas are South Asia and Africa, where income will decrease by more than 22%.
That's just looking at lost income, but climate change also increases other costs of living.
Global consulting firm ICF estimates that if we continue business as usual and do not actively reduce emissions, causing global warming to exceed 4°C by the end of this century, under this "high emissions" scenario, American babies born in 2024 will have The "lifetime personal cost" of climate change may be as high as US$500,000, or about NT$16 million.
What exactly does these 16 million miles include?
Enlightened housing: Frequent hurricanes, floods and other extreme climates have led to increased maintenance, repair and insurance costs for houses. The lifetime housing cost is expected to increase by US$125,000 (approximately NT$4.07 million);
Enlightened Food: Extreme climate impacts agriculture and supply chains, causing lifetime food prices to rise by US$33,000 (approximately NT$1.07 million);
Enlightened Energy and Transportation: Extreme climate threatens energy infrastructure and supply. Electricity prices, oil prices, gas prices, and even car insurance are all rising. In addition, heat waves also force people to turn on air conditioners more aggressively, and the lifetime cost is estimated to increase by US$92,000 (approximately NT$). 2.99 million);
Enlightened Medical Care: Heat cramps, heat fatigue, and heat stroke caused by heat waves aggravate the condition and mortality of patients with cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, resulting in an increase in lifetime medical and health costs of US$5,000 (approximately NT$160,000);
Enlightened tax payment: Extreme weather causes economic losses and erodes tax revenue. The government needs to bail out and rebuild. If it has no money, it can only increase taxes. Therefore, people born this year will pay an extra US$200,000 in taxes (approximately NT$6.51 million) in their lifetime. .
In the end, everything went up, except that lifetime earnings fell by US$25,000 (approximately NT$880,000) due to reduced working hours due to extreme weather and health risks.
Expenses have increased, income has decreased, and people have become poorer.
"Climate change will increase the cost of living by 9%. For many Americans, these financial losses will force them to make some difficult decisions on food, housing and other daily expenses." The ICF survey report said.
But the ICF says these figures are still an underestimate. If investment losses from retirement funds are included, the losses almost immediately double. In addition, when estimating tax increases, the report did not take into account increased defense spending (the U.S. Department of Defense is elevating climate change to a national security priority), federal mortgage risks (extreme weather can lead to the total or partial loss of loan collateral), and damage to federal buildings and facilities, otherwise the increase would be even higher. Moreover, this is calculated based on prices in 2024. With inflation, the actual cost of living may increase even more.
The numbers are scary, but the author of the "Nature" paper said that this is not "the end of the world" and there is still hope.
We can choose to swallow $38 trillion in economic losses, or invest $6 trillion—less than one-sixth of the losses—to limit warming to 2°C.
Although the paper says that improvising emissions reductions now will have little impact on reducing revenue losses before 2050, it could determine the future in the second half of this century. If we can control temperature rise within 2°C, economic losses will be limited to 20% of global income; once out of control, in the worst case, economic losses will be nearly 60%.
The ICF report has similar conclusions. Under a low-emissions scenario (carbon peaks in 2080, with a temperature increase of 1.5°C), economic losses will be far less than US$500,000 to US$1 million; the additional taxes to be paid will also range from US$200,000. dropped to 5,200 US dollars, a drop of 97.4%; it may even turn a profit, for example, by investing in companies that develop climate mitigation or adaptation technologies, people born this year can expect to earn an additional "low-carbon transition premium" of US$25,000. rather than loss
As the old saying goes, only by maintaining 2°C can we control economic bleeding, prevent salaries from shrinking, and capital from being gnawed away.
※ This article is reprinted with permission from "CSR@天下", the original title is "Climate change will make the next generation poor!" Americans born in 2024 will spend at least 16 million more on housing, food and medical care throughout their lives. CC co-creation licensing terms do not apply.
Source: Environmental Information Center
